Finance
MediumMarket data current
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
19%
Limited history
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Current
5%
24h Change
-1.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
19
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
19%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.0% | 4.7% | -1.6pp | $2K | active |
| 2.5–3.0% | 18.5% | — | $2K | active |
| 3.0–3.5% | 2.5% | -0.4pp | $1K | active |
| ≥3.5% | 5.3% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| 2.0–2.5% | 31.0% | +2.0pp | $892 | active |
| 1.5–2.0% | 24.0% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
Current implied probability
5%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: Low24%
5%
31%
23%
3%
| 1.0–1.5% | 23.4% | +8.3pp | $2K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.