Finance
MediumMarket data current
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?
5%
Limited history
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
31%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
19
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $892 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
5%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.0% | 4.7% | -1.6pp | $2K | active |
| 2.5–3.0% | 18.5% | — | $2K | active |
| 3.0–3.5% | 2.5% | -0.4pp | $1K | active |
| ≥3.5% | 5.3% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| 2.0–2.5% | 31.0% | +2.0pp | $892 | active |
| 1.5–2.0% | 24.0% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
Current implied probability
31%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: Low19%
24%
5%
23%
3%
| 1.0–1.5% | 23.4% | +8.3pp | $2K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.