EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 in 2026?

100%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update+18.9pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 18.9pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is $8K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$8K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 in 2026?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

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