Geopolitics

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?

15%Market data currentLow-confidence move-7.7pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

15%

24h Change

-7.7pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

3

0%25%50%75%100%22:0023:000:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 7.7pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
14.8%
No implied probability
85.3%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$13K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
15 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Verify on Polymarket

Why this may have moved

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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