Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
31%
-0.5ppMarket activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.
Signal: MediumCurrent
13%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
13
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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
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Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
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