Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
0%
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Current
94%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydie Massard | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $25K | active |
| Benjamin Lucas-Lundy | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.6% | +0.3pp | $25K | active |
| Canceled | 93.8% | -1.0pp | $31K | active |
| François Ruffin | 1.3% | -0.4pp | $18K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.6% | — | $15K |
Current implied probability
94%Probability moved down 1.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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| active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.