Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydie Massard | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $25K | active |
| Benjamin Lucas-Lundy | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.6% | +0.3pp | $25K | active |
| Canceled | 93.8% | -1.0pp | $31K | active |
| François Ruffin | 1.3% | -0.4pp | $18K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.6% | — | $15K |
Current implied probability
1%Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
0%
1%
94%
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| active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.