EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

10%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCStable consensus+0.05pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

10%

24h Change

+0.05pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
10.3%
No implied probability
89.8%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$42K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 23 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC

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