EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

24%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move+2.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24%

24h Change

+2.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $4K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
24.0%
No implied probability
76.0%
Liquidity
$4K
Market Activity
$6K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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