Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
42%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
17%Recent probability movement (down 9.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
17%
24h Change
-9.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
27
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 9.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
42%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chalifoux | 41.5% | -1.0pp | $28K | active |
| Jorge Martinez | 16.5% | -9.0pp | $14K | active |
| Marcus Carter | 15.7% | +5.7pp | $18K | active |
| Jorge Malavet | 0.8% | -2.6pp | $17K | active |
| Ben Butler | 1.6% | -22.9pp | $10K | active |
| Justin Story | 7.8% | +2.3pp | $15K |
16%
1%
2%
8%
3%
| active |
| Howard Steven Rance | 3.0% | -0.9pp | $13K | active |
| Steve Rance | 4.4% | -16.6pp | $3K | active |
| Dan Green | 11.0% | -4.5pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.