Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
42%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
2%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
-22.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
27
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 22.9pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h volume is $283. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
42%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chalifoux | 41.5% | -1.0pp | $28K | active |
| Jorge Martinez | 16.5% | -9.0pp | $14K | active |
| Marcus Carter | 15.7% | +5.7pp | $18K | active |
| Jorge Malavet | 0.8% | -2.6pp | $17K | active |
| Ben Butler | 1.6% | -22.9pp | $10K | active |
| Justin Story | 7.8% | +2.3pp | $15K |
17%
16%
1%
8%
3%
| active |
| Howard Steven Rance | 3.0% | -0.9pp | $13K | active |
| Steve Rance | 4.4% | -16.6pp | $3K | active |
| Dan Green | 11.0% | -4.5pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.