Finance
MediumMarket data current
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?
31%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
16%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
31%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7-0.9% | 30.5% | -3.0pp | $668 | active |
| 1.0-1.2% | 3.1% | +0.3pp | $669 | active |
| 1.3%+ | 4.0% | +1.8pp | $561 | active |
| 0.4-0.6% | 54.0% | — | $766 | active |
| 0.1-0.3% | 15.5% | -1.0pp | $845 | active |
| ≤0.0% | 7.4% | -0.1pp | $781 | active |
Current implied probability
16%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $845 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
54%
7%
3%
4%
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.