Finance
MediumMarket data current
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
3%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
10%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
10%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
85
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3.4% | -0.4pp | $15K | active |
| JetBlue | 4.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Frontier Airlines | 10.0% | +0.5pp | $627 | active |
| Allegiant | 3.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Alaska Airlines | 2.3% | — | $13K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $627 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
5%
3%
2%