EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?

95%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCStable consensus+0.2pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

95%

24h Change

+0.2pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $3K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
95.0%
No implied probability
5.0%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$4K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 16 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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