Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
0%
Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
11
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The Yashar party ("Yashar! With Eisenkot") or the Together Party announce that the Yashar party will merge with, or contest the 2026 Israeli legislative election on a joint candidate list with, the Together party. 2) Gadi Eisenkot or the Together party announce that Gadi Eisenkot will run on the Together party’s candidate list for the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, offers, invitations, or other non-definitive statements will not count. If the Together party undergoes a merger, name change, or other restructuring, the resulting party or alliance will be considered the Together party for purposes of this market, provided both Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are members of the resulting party or alliance. If the Yashar party undergoes a merger, name change, or other restructuring, the resulting party, alliance, or candidate list will be considered the Yashar party for purposes of this market, provided Gadi Eisenkot is a member of the resulting party, alliance, or candidate list. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Yashar party, the Together party, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
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+7.0pp5%
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-0.5pp