Tech/AI
MediumMarket data current
Will Ariana Grande officially release Petal by August 31, 2026?
98%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
76%
24h Change
-9.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ariana Grande officially releases Petal by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Petal is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Ariana Grande album officially confirmed to be the Petal project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
98%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 98.1% | — | $288 | active |
| July 31 | 76.4% | -9.0pp | $60 | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -28.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
76%Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 9.0pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $60 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.