EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?

32%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-17.0pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

32%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 17.0pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $36 and 24h volume is $123. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
31.5%
No implied probability
68.5%
Liquidity
$36
Market Activity
$13K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 28 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC

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