Tech/AI
MediumMarket data current
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
34%
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Current
24%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
65
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
34%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1530 | 33.5% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
| ↑ 1550 | 26.0% | — | $4K | active |
| ↑ 1600 | 10.5% | — | $7K | active |
| ↑ 1540 | 23.5% | -0.5pp | $418 | active |
| ↑ 1510 | 87.0% | -1.5pp | $190 | active |
| ↑ 1650 | 7.5% | — | $2K | active |
Current implied probability
24%Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
26%
11%
3%
8%
87%
| ↑ 1700 | 3.3% | -0.6pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ 1520 | 66.5% | -3.5pp | $178 | active |
| ↑ 1500 | 100.0% | +4.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.