Tech/AI
MediumMarket data current
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
34%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
87%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
65
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
34%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1530 | 33.5% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
| ↑ 1550 | 26.0% | — | $4K | active |
| ↑ 1600 | 10.5% | — | $7K | active |
| ↑ 1540 | 23.5% | -0.5pp | $418 | active |
| ↑ 1510 | 87.0% | -1.5pp | $190 | active |
| ↑ 1650 | 7.5% | — | $2K | active |
Current implied probability
87%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $190 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
26%
11%
24%
3%
8%
| ↑ 1700 | 3.3% | -0.6pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ 1520 | 66.5% | -3.5pp | $178 | active |
| ↑ 1500 | 100.0% | +4.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.