EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?

3%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-24.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 24.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

3%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 24.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.5%
No implied probability
97.5%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$15K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 12 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC

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