U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowLow-confidence movement
This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
3
Movement Read
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
This market is resolved. Live-market movement analysis is suppressed.
Market Snapshot — read-only
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
- Yes implied probability
- 0.0%
- No implied probability
- 100.0%
- Liquidity
- Not available
- Market Activity
- $94K
- Data Source
- Polymarket
- Last Synced
- 15 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Resolution Rules
Resolves Yes if …
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolves No if …
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Important caveats
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC