EAEventAlpha
Politics

Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

0%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCResolution watch-0.2pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.2pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

0%

24h Change

-0.2pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$5K
Market Activity
$34K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any gold coin featuring Donald Trump’s likeness is officially issued by the U.S. Mint by July 4th, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A coin will be considered “officially issued” if the U.S. Mint makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. Announcement of a coin without qualifying issuance will not count. A qualifying coin must be legal tender, but does not need to be minted for general circulation. Commemorative coins minted for a limited production run will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Mint; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 4 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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