EAEventAlpha
Politics

SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

94%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

94%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $34K and 24h volume is $1. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
93.7%
No implied probability
6.3%
Liquidity
$34K
Market Activity
$160K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
26 Jun 2026, 22:38 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States. Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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