EAEventAlpha
Politics

Israeli election results in a hung parliament?

34%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCLow-confidence move-28.0pp (24h)

Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

34%

24h Change

-28.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

18

0%25%50%75%100%4:008:0013:0017:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 28.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $6K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
33.5%
No implied probability
66.5%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$1K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Israeli election results in a hung parliament?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset. An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government. If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called. If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 27 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC

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