Politics

Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?

Current implied probability

4%
Market data currentStable consensus

Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.

Signal: Medium

Current

4%

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

5

0%25%50%75%100%8:009:0010:0011:0012:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
3.5%
No implied probability
96.5%
Liquidity
$9K
Market Activity
$36K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
Verify on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

If Donald J. Trump visits North Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of North Korea. Whether or not Trump enters North Korean airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

No closely related markets found.

No closely related markets found in the current catalog.

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Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

OutcomeProbability24h changeLiquidityState
December 313.5%$9Kactive
June 300.0%-0.3pp$0resolved

Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.