Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
Current implied probability
4%Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.
Signal: MediumCurrent
4%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
5
Movement Read
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Market Snapshot — read-only
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
- Yes implied probability
- 3.5%
- No implied probability
- 96.5%
- Liquidity
- $9K
- Market Activity
- $36K
- Data Source
- Polymarket
- Last Synced
- 15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
Resolution Rules
Resolves Yes if …
If Donald J. Trump visits North Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of North Korea. Whether or not Trump enters North Korean airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves No if …
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Important caveats
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Related Markets
No closely related markets found.
No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
Explore more Politics marketsSource event comparison
Related outcomes in one view
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.5% | — | $9K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.