EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

15%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCStable consensus

Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

15%

24h Change

-2.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
15.0%
No implied probability
85.0%
Liquidity
$46
Market Activity
$604
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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