EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

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Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$0
Market Activity
$15K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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