EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year?

5%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCStable consensus-0.6pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.6pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

5%

24h Change

-0.6pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
5.4%
No implied probability
94.6%
Liquidity
$964
Market Activity
$692
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2026 Action of the Year award for the 2026 Formula 1 season as awarded at the FIA Awards. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 13 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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