Politics

Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

3%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+3.3pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.3pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $1K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 3.4%
No implied probability: 96.7%
Liquidity: $1K
Market Activity: $18K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 26 Jun 2026, 22:38 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

72%

Vol $52KCloses 23 Jun 2026