Sport
MediumMarket data current
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50%
Limited history-21.0pp
Vol $4KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Current implied probability
4%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
4%
24h Change
+1.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
4
Movement Read
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.9pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Market Snapshot — read-only
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
- Yes implied probability
- 4.3%
- No implied probability
- 95.8%
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Market Activity
- $12K
- Data Source
- Polymarket
- Last Synced
- 15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
Why this may have moved
Not checked yet
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
Resolution Rules
Resolves Yes if …
This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves No if …
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Important caveats
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Related Markets
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
Sport
MediumMarket data current
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
38%
Limited history+13.1pp
Vol $2KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
MediumMarket data current
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Limited history-0.1pp
Vol $464Closes 20 Jul 2026
Sport
LowMarket data current
Will Lautaro Martínez record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Limited history-0.2pp
Vol $4KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Source event comparison
Related outcomes in one view
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 50.0% | -21.0pp | $1K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 38.4% | +13.1pp | $3K | active |
| Harry Kane | 4.3% | +1.9pp | $3K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $2K | active |
| Lautaro Martínez | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Romelu Lukaku | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Julio Tavares | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jamal Musiala | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Santiago Giménez | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ismael Díaz | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Federico Valverde | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Riyad Mahrez | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Martin Boyle | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ermedin Demirović | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Raphinha | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jonathan David | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Luis Díaz | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Andrej Kramarić | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ondřej Duda | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cédric Bakambu | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Enner Valencia | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mohammed Kudus | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Frantzdy Pierrot | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mehdi Taremi | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Aymen Hussein | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sébastien Haller | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Musa Al-Taamari | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cody Gakpo | 0.0% | -2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Chris Wood | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Erling Haaland | 0.0% | -4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Julio Enciso | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Rafael Leão | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Akram Afif | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Scott McTominay | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sadio Mané | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Son Heung-min | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Granit Xhaka | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Arda Güler | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Christian Pulisic | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Eldor Shomurodov | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Christoph Baumgartner | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Hannibal Mejbri | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Leandro Bacuna | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Lyle Foster | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.