Politics

Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?

14%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move+4.7pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

14%

24h Change

+4.7pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.7pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $3K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 13.9%
No implied probability: 86.1%
Liquidity: $3K
Market Activity: $1K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

86%

+1.0pp

Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026