Tech / AI

Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+0.05pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $14K and 24h volume is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.3%
No implied probability: 99.7%
Liquidity: $14K
Market Activity: $103K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 30 Jun 2026, 22:58 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

-0.05pp

Vol $14Closes 31 Dec 2026