EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $4K and 24h volume is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
99.9%
Liquidity
$4K
Market Activity
$30K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:58 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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