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Sport

Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

0%

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%22:0019:000:001:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
99.8%
Liquidity
$30K
Market Activity
$21K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market resolves to the nation represented by the player who finishes as the top goalscorer across all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the nation represented by the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nationality of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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