Crypto

Will 6+ coins launched in 2026 end the year above $1B FDV?

48%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCLow-confidence move-6.5pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

48%

24h Change

-6.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $28 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 48.0%
No implied probability: 52.0%
Liquidity: $28
Market Activity: $116
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 6 or more tokens launched in 2026 end the year with an FDV above $1B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, LSTs, liquidity pool tokens, or synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

10%

Vol $4KCloses 1 Jan 2027