EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?

35%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-12.0pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

35%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 12.0pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $34 and 24h volume is $110. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
35.3%
No implied probability
64.8%
Liquidity
$34
Market Activity
$599
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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