Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current
6%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
No closely related markets found.
No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
Explore more Politics marketsSource event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 5.5% | +0.6pp | $9K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (up 0.6pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.