EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

2%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+1.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 1.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

2%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.1%
No implied probability
97.8%
Liquidity
$9K
Market Activity
$20K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:58 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC

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