Loading the latest market intelligence…
This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
10%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
No closely related markets found.
No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
Explore more Politics marketsSource event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 9.5% | +1.0pp | $406 | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -3.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
10%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $406 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.