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Politics

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

1%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCStable consensus+0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

1%

24h Change

+0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

16

0%25%50%75%100%6:0010:0014:0017:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
1.3%
No implied probability
98.7%
Liquidity
$26K
Market Activity
$73K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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