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Sport

MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

22%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCLow-confidence move-3.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

22%

24h Change

-3.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

41

0%25%50%75%100%5:0015:001:0011:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $114 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
21.5%
No implied probability
78.5%
Liquidity
$114
Market Activity
$3
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

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MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

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