EAEventAlpha
Politics

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update-0.1pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$35K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC

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