EAEventAlpha
Politics

Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?

3%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCLow-confidence move+1.4pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

3%

24h Change

+1.4pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
3.5%
No implied probability
96.5%
Liquidity
$2K
Market Activity
$967
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.