Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
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-0.3ppRecent probability movement (down 1.2pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumProbability history will appear after additional syncs.
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.2pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jang Dong-hyeok and the People Power Party (PPP); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
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