Politics
LowMarket data current
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
100%
Limited history
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
42%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
6
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
100%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 44.5% | — | $20 | active |
| December 31 | 99.8% | — | $17K | active |
| August 7 | 42.0% | — | $19 | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | +2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
42%Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: Low45%