EAEventAlpha
Politics

Diddy released from custody in 2026?

24%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move+5.5pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

24%

24h Change

+5.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%22:0019:000:001:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 5.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
23.9%
No implied probability
76.0%
Liquidity
$2K
Market Activity
$2K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.