Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
0%
+0.3ppSignal quality is low because the market data is stale.
Signal: LowProbability history will appear after additional syncs.
1%
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
0%
+0.3pp0%
-0.05pp0%
0%
-0.05pp100%
+0.4pp0%
-0.1pp