EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

AWS service disrupted by July 31?

28%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCLow-confidence move-3.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

28%

24h Change

-3.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

16

0%25%50%75%100%6:0010:0014:0017:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.0pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $42 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
27.5%
No implied probability
72.5%
Liquidity
$42
Market Activity
$3
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

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AWS service disrupted by July 31?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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