# EventAlpha LLM Guide

EventAlpha turns stored Polymarket market data into read-only probability intelligence for politics, macro, crypto, sport, AI, and geopolitics. No trading. No financial advice.

## Canonical Site

https://www.theeventalpha.com

## What EventAlpha Is

EventAlpha is a read-only market intelligence site for world events. It summarizes stored Polymarket market data into probability-focused pages, category pages, and a Daily Brief for research use.

## Current Public Entry Points

- [Homepage](https://www.theeventalpha.com/) — overview, top markets, movers, activity, categories, methodology, and beta signup.
- [Markets index](https://www.theeventalpha.com/markets) — searchable market monitor. Treat query/filter URLs as non-canonical.
- [Daily Brief](https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief) — latest stored market briefing and signal summary.
- [Categories](https://www.theeventalpha.com/categories) — thematic entry point for market groups.
- [Sitemap](https://www.theeventalpha.com/sitemap.xml)
- [Robots](https://www.theeventalpha.com/robots.txt)
- [Concise LLM guide](https://www.theeventalpha.com/llms.txt)

## Data Freshness

- Latest synced data shown by EventAlpha: 4 Jul 2026, 00:01 UTC.
- Active markets tracked: 8,815.
- Total 24h activity shown by EventAlpha: $505.3M.
- Figures may lag live Polymarket pages. Users should verify live pricing and resolution rules on Polymarket.

## Categories

- [Crypto](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/crypto) — Market-implied probability analytics for digital assets, regulation, and milestone events. $143.8M 24h activity.
- [Politics](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/politics) — Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence. $3956.7M 24h activity.
- [Sport](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/sport) — Tournament and season outcome probability movement across major leagues. $4466.2M 24h activity.
- [Finance](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/finance) — Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets. $128.7M 24h activity.
- [Tech/AI](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/tech-ai) — Product launches, regulation, and adoption forecasts in probability terms. $82.9M 24h activity.
- [Geopolitics](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/geopolitics) — Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics. $606.0M 24h activity.

## Fresh High-Quality Market Pages

- [Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-argentina-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-558938) — 14% implied probability; -4.7pp 24h movement; $3.5M 24h activity; high signal.
- [Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026-560317) — 11% implied probability; -1.0pp 24h movement; $1.2M 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lionel-messi-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-069635) — 35% implied probability; -9.7pp 24h movement; $178K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lebron-james-play-for-the-golden-state-warriors-in-2026-27-931108) — 17% implied probability; -8.2pp 24h movement; $125K 24h activity; high signal.
- [NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-090496) — 21% implied probability; +6.5pp 24h movement; $117K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lebron-james-play-for-the-philadelphia-76ers-in-2026-27-931121) — 16% implied probability; +10.2pp 24h movement; $107K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lebron-james-play-for-the-cleveland-cavaliers-in-2026-27-931104) — 42% implied probability; -6.8pp 24h movement; $96K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027-663583) — 7% implied probability; -2.0pp 24h movement; $96K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Trump out as President before 2027?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-666861) — 8% implied probability; +1.0pp 24h movement; $80K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-kylian-mbappe-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-069638) — 50% implied probability; +10.0pp 24h movement; $71K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by-july-15-2026-744616) — 4% implied probability; -3.5pp 24h movement; $69K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lebron-james-play-for-the-miami-heat-in-2026-27-931114) — 12% implied probability; +1.7pp 24h movement; $67K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/mojtaba-khamenei-seen-in-public-by-july-15-658294) — 11% implied probability; -1.5pp 24h movement; $63K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-leader-of-bahrain-by-december-31-2026-896800) — 7% implied probability; -1.0pp 24h movement; $57K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-u-s-invade-iran-before-2027-665374) — 13% implied probability; -1.0pp 24h movement; $54K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lebron-james-play-for-the-denver-nuggets-in-2026-27-931106) — 4% implied probability; +1.7pp 24h movement; $54K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-argentina-reach-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-071554) — 36% implied probability; -4.0pp 24h movement; $52K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-harry-kane-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-069670) — 6% implied probability; -1.4pp 24h movement; $51K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-portugal-reach-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-071558) — 14% implied probability; -1.5pp 24h movement; $46K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/ukraine-election-called-by-august-31-2026-602067) — 4% implied probability; -1.4pp 24h movement; $39K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-england-reach-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-071562) — 18% implied probability; -3.0pp 24h movement; $38K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-jannik-sinner-be-the-2026-men-s-wimbledon-winner-087890) — 60% implied probability; +5.0pp 24h movement; $37K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-ousmane-dembele-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-069660) — 4% implied probability; +1.6pp 24h movement; $36K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-communist-party-of-the-russian-federation-kprf-gain-the-most-seats-in-t-130013) — 3% implied probability; +1.1pp 24h movement; $32K 24h activity; high signal.

## Latest Daily Brief

- [Daily Market Brief - July 3, 2026](https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief) — Market activity remains robust with significant movements in various categories. The finance and crypto sectors show notable fluctuations in probabilities.

## Use And Citation Guidance

- Cite EventAlpha as read-only market intelligence derived from stored Polymarket data.
- Do not describe EventAlpha as a trading, betting, wallet, exchange, broker, financial-advice, legal-advice, or tax-advice service.
- Market-implied probabilities are not guarantees.
- Prefer canonical clean URLs. Do not cite /api routes, /unsubscribe links, or filtered query URLs as primary sources.