# EventAlpha LLM Guide

EventAlpha is a 5-minute overnight scan of Polymarket: what moved, what looks like noise, and what to check before you open the venue. No trading. No financial advice.

## Canonical Site

https://www.theeventalpha.com

## What EventAlpha Is

EventAlpha is a read-only market intelligence site for world events. It summarizes stored Polymarket market data into a concise homepage signal queue, a full Daily Brief, a searchable market monitor, category pages, detail pages, and a personal Radar for research use.

## Current Public Entry Points

- [Homepage](https://www.theeventalpha.com/) — top-three primary signal teaser, intelligence queue, supported starting points, categories, and Daily Brief subscription.
- [Markets index](https://www.theeventalpha.com/markets) — searchable market monitor. Treat query/filter URLs as non-canonical.
- [Daily Brief](https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief) — complete latest stored market briefing and signal summary.
- [Daily Brief archive](https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/archive) — permanent dated editions for citation and historical comparison.
- [Radar](https://www.theeventalpha.com/radar) — device-local saved markets and events, with optional cross-device sync and alerts.
- [Categories](https://www.theeventalpha.com/categories) — thematic entry point for market groups.
- [Methodology](https://www.theeventalpha.com/methodology) — full ranking, signal-quality, activity, and disclosure methodology.
- [Sitemap](https://www.theeventalpha.com/sitemap.xml)
- [Robots](https://www.theeventalpha.com/robots.txt)
- [Concise LLM guide](https://www.theeventalpha.com/llms.txt)

## Data Freshness

- Latest database refresh run shown by EventAlpha: 14 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Active markets tracked: 7,705.
- Total 24h activity shown by EventAlpha: $199.9M.
- Figures may lag live Polymarket pages. Users should verify live pricing and resolution rules on Polymarket.

## Categories

- [Crypto](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/crypto) — Market-implied probability analytics for digital assets, regulation, and milestone events. $1.6M 24h activity.
- [Politics](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/politics) — Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence. $56.0M 24h activity.
- [Sport](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/sport) — Tournament and season outcome probability movement across major leagues. $180.0M 24h activity.
- [Finance](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/finance) — Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets. $1.2M 24h activity.
- [Tech/AI](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/tech-ai) — Product launches, regulation, and adoption forecasts in probability terms. $1.3M 24h activity.
- [Geopolitics](https://www.theeventalpha.com/category/geopolitics) — Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics. $109.9M 24h activity.

## Fresh High-Quality Market Pages

- [Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-252244) — 16% implied probability; -5.0pp 24h movement; $3.5M 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-252245) — 84% implied probability; +5.0pp 24h movement; $2.1M 24h activity; high signal.
- [Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699) — 28% implied probability; +2.0pp 24h movement; $796K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31-176270) — 18% implied probability; -3.0pp 24h movement; $134K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election-565065) — 67% implied probability; +2.0pp 24h movement; $117K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026-560317) — 7% implied probability; +1.0pp 24h movement; $109K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-flavio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election-601826) — 51% implied probability; +1.1pp 24h movement; $101K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-new-york-giants-win-the-2027-nfl-league-championship-357394) — 3% implied probability; +1.7pp 24h movement; $97K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-david-lisnard-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election-679022) — 7% implied probability; -1.3pp 24h movement; $95K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Fed rate hike in 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-908713) — 90% implied probability; +2.0pp 24h movement; $94K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-elec-130012) — 79% implied probability; -1.0pp 24h movement; $92K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-los-angeles-chargers-win-the-2027-nfl-league-championship-357388) — 3% implied probability; -1.9pp 24h movement; $87K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-baltimore-ravens-win-the-2027-nfl-league-championship-357373) — 9% implied probability; +2.5pp 24h movement; $66K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-buffalo-bills-win-the-2027-nfl-league-championship-357374) — 10% implied probability; +1.0pp 24h movement; $57K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-ethereum-dip-to-1-500-by-december-31-2026-701552) — 12% implied probability; -1.1pp 24h movement; $57K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026-630805) — 62% implied probability; -2.0pp 24h movement; $55K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-35-000-by-december-31-2026-701503) — 5% implied probability; -1.0pp 24h movement; $53K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/fed-rate-hike-by-september-2026-meeting-808547) — 84% implied probability; +5.0pp 24h movement; $52K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-december-31-853074) — 23% implied probability; +1.0pp 24h movement; $46K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-the-chicago-bears-win-the-2027-nfl-league-championship-357376) — 6% implied probability; +1.3pp 24h movement; $41K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-d-or-608545) — 19% implied probability; +2.8pp 24h movement; $39K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-682706) — 10% implied probability; +1.0pp 24h movement; $31K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-85-000-by-december-31-2026-467207) — 68% implied probability; +7.5pp 24h movement; $31K 24h activity; high signal.
- [Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?](https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-finish-in-second-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-365854) — 20% implied probability; -2.5pp 24h movement; $31K 24h activity; high signal.

## Latest Daily Brief

- [Caleb Williams MVP market surged 10.85pp](https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-14) — published 2026-09-14T14:02:29.156Z; The market for Caleb Williams winning the 2026 NFL MVP saw a significant increase of 10.85 percentage points. Other notable movements include a decline in Augusto Cury's chances in the Brazilian presidential election and a drop in the probability of no change in Fed interest rates.

## Use And Citation Guidance

- Cite EventAlpha as read-only market intelligence derived from stored Polymarket data.
- Do not describe EventAlpha as a trading, betting, wallet, exchange, broker, financial-advice, legal-advice, or tax-advice service.
- Market-implied probabilities are not guarantees.
- Prefer canonical clean URLs. Do not cite /api routes, /unsubscribe links, or filtered query URLs as primary sources.