Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
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Category
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
228 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 12 of 12 matching geopolitics markets.
Ranked by nearest active close date.
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
4%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
6%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
3%
Included because probability moved -1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
19%
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
14%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
3%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
24%
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
39%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
24%